Intro to Decision Making
Learning Objective
To gain perspective on the many factors that go into making decisions.
To explore the concept of decision fatigue and how to mitigate this with preparation, planning, and training.
Introduction
Decision Making is a key risk management skill for outdoor leaders. Leading groups in a dynamic and complex environment requires strong situational awareness, knowledge and experience and an ability to make thoughtful and logical decisions using a variety of tools and inputs. In this chapter we will explore the basics of decision making, including barriers to sound decision making.
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Why Do We Make Decisions?
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How Do We Gather Information to Make Sound Decisions?
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What Factors Go Into Making A Sound Decision?
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General Decision Making Process
Here is a simple model to think about how we make decisions:
- Understand the situation: why does a decision need to be made?
- Define the problem
- Propose course of action/alternatives: Evaluate options
- Choose course of action: Execute plan
- Evaluate results: Use reflective practice to inform future planning and decisions
Barriers to Sound Decisions
The following are considered to be ‘hazardous attitudes’ that can show up in groups and individuals and negatively influence decision making. As a leader, being able to detect when these are in play in yourself, your peers or participants
“I know better than you, so I don’t need to listen.”
Anti-authority attitudes can disrupt or derail even the best laid plans. Those with anti-authority tendencies tend to ignore rules, instead believing that regulations don’t apply to them. Those who are anti-authority might ignore instructions, checklists, advice, and guidance, or try to take charge from others.
“It’s not on the route, but why not?”
Impulsivity is the tendency to act without thinking. Those who are impulsive may make a quick, rash decision without considering ramifications or any potential negative fallout.
“Nothing can go wrong.”
A feeling of Invulnerability might lead individuals to take risks that they would not normally take, feeling that nothing can go wrong, nothing can hurt them (or the group), or that there is no danger great enough to be able to disrupt or stop themselves or the group.
“This is so easy for me.”
Machoism is a form of posturing where someone might assume an overly aggressive or domineering approach to problems. Machoism is characterised by overconfidence, pride in physical strength, a preference to settle issues with force or ‘power through’, and a disregard for the actions or opinions of those seen as “weaker” or “less manly” than the “macho” person.
“Whatever. Let’s just go. I don’t care.”
Resignation involves “giving up” or “giving in” to whatever is happening and taking no action to fix, mitigate, or prevent any further negative outcomes.
“I’m really unsure about this, but they know better than me.”
Those not willing to challenge “experts” are experiencing Rank Difference. Even though they may see mistakes being made or errors in judgement, they are not willing to speak up because they may feel that they are a “rookie” with less experience and no right to challenge those in charge.
“Why bother with that? We’ll be done really soon and then everything will be ok.”
Press-On-Itis , Destination Focus, Tunnel Visioned, or Smell-the-Barn Theory effects those who feel so close to the target that they become preoccupied with reaching their goal that they become complacent and skip steps or become carless. An example would be not donning rain gear because they expect to “get warm in a car in an hour.”
“We can do it together.”
Risky Shift, or Group Think, is a tendency for groups to make decisions that are less conservative than what would be made by an individual. Groups with Risky Shift will decide on a course of action more extreme than a course of action taken by an individual, often due to the feeling of being safe in a group, a perceived lack of individual responsibility, or because those more willing to take charge and take risks may be swaying the overall collective.
“I’ve had worse. This is fine.”
Anchoring Bias causes individuals to rely on and reference a piece of information or a past experience to the determent of their current goal. New information and occurrences are weighed against a past experience, which can disrupt objectivity, skew judgements, and prevent individuals from changing plan or adjusting to mitigate danger or damage.
Checkpoint: Decision Making Scenario
You are leading a group on a three-day camping trip in Algonquin Park. You know most of the group from a trip you took together a month earlier which went well, though there was one member who often challenges your decisions.
What can you do before, during, and after the trip to make sure that you make the best decisions possible while in the park?
Type your answer into the text box below. When you’re finished, click Download, and then Review Answer to be taken to a summary. Once there, click Download Answer to create a copy for you to keep and submit later.
References
Harvard Law School. (2023, March 27). The Anchoring Effect and How it Can Impact Your Negotiation. Program On Negotiation. https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/negotiation-skills-daily/the-drawbacks-of-goals/
Hong, L.K. (1978). Risky shift and cautious shift: some direct evidence on the culture-value theory. Social Psychology, 41: 342-346.
Webster, T. (2020, August 26). The Risky Shift Phenomenon: What Is It, Why Does It Occur and What are the Implications for Outdoor Recreationists?. Canadian Avalanche Association. https://www.avalancheassociation.ca/blogpost/1815963/354569/The-Risky-Shift-Phenomenon-What-Is-It-Why-Does-It-Occur-and-What-are-the-Implications-for-Outdoor-Recreationists
