4.4 Special Case: Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is a type of implicit cognitive bias, a mental shortcut we unconsciously use that leads us to favour information that confirms our existing beliefs, assumptions, or hypotheses, while ignoring or undervaluing evidence that contradicts them.
In the context of implicit assumptions, confirmation bias is a key mechanism that plays a significant role. It reinforces what we already believe without us realizing it, making it harder to challenge or revise our views. This bias operates beneath conscious awareness, which is why it is so prevalent and difficult to detect.
Classic Examples of Confirmation Bias
News Consumption: A person with strong political inclinations may only read news sources that align with his/her views, dismissing opposing sources as “biased” or “fake.”
Medical Diagnosis: A doctor may form an early hypothesis about a patient’s condition and then focus only on symptoms that support that diagnosis, overlooking contradictory signs.
Sports fans’ perceptions: Fans often believe referees are unfair to their team, interpreting neutral or fair calls as biased against them.
Horoscopes: People interpret vague predictions in ways that match their current experiences, reinforcing their belief in astrology.
Academic Research: A student writing a paper may only cite studies that support their thesis, ignoring those that challenge it.
Confirmation bias isn’t confined to psychology; it’s everywhere. Below are some examples of the presence of confirmation bias across many disciplines.
- In Science, researchers may favour data that supports their hypothesis, risking flawed conclusions.
- In Law Enforcement, investigators may focus on a suspect early in the investigative process and interpret all evidence through that lens.
- In Business, executives may ignore market signals that contradict their strategy, leading to poor decisions.
- In Education, teachers may unconsciously expect certain students to perform better and interpret their behaviour accordingly.
- In Relationships, people may focus on actions that confirm their beliefs about a partner (e.g., “He is always late”).
- In Finance, investors may seek out news that supports their portfolio choices, ignoring warning signs.
- In social media, algorithms feed users content that aligns with their views, creating so-called “echo chambers”.
Why it Matters
If left unchecked, confirmation bias can:
- Reinforce stereotypes.
- Undermine objectivity.
- Fuel polarization.
- Impede innovation.
- Recognizing confirmation bias is a solid first step toward critical thinking and intellectual humility.
Improving critical thinking isn’t about becoming emotionless or robotic—it’s about becoming more deliberate and curious. The goal is not to eliminate bias entirely (a very difficult goal to attain, given our human nature, which is prone to bias), but to recognize it, question it, and reduce its influence.
